Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
06/23/2009 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record - 10-8. Playoff Result: Lost, 36-26, to Montreal in division final. Stadium - Commonwealth Stadium. Capacity - 60,081. Colors - Green, gold, black and white
Despite boasting a winning record last season, the Eskimos finished last in the CFL Western Division standings at 10-8. That mark was still good enough for a spot in the playoffs, where they defeated Winnipeg in the division semifinals before losing out to Montreal in the East finals.
This season brings a different look for the Green and Gold, as Richie Hall takes over the head coaching reigns for Danny Maciocia, who moved into the role of General Manager and Director of Football Operations. Hall brings with him a proven defensive scheme that will surely have Edmonton competing for its first Grey Cup since 2005.
At quarterback, Ricky Ray will once again be in charge of running the Eskimos and he brings experience to the table. In 2008, Ray completed nearly 70 percent of his pass attempts with 26 touchdowns and 17 picks. He also added five scores on the ground in what was a highly successful season. Ray, along with backup Jason Maas, will feel the heat from rookies Jared Zabransky (Boise State) and Lester Ricard (Tulane), both of whom had terrific collegiate careers.
Helping to take some of the pressure off Ray this season will be a backfield with intriguing options. Canadian Calvin McCarty proved he belonged in his first full season in 2008, rushing for 490 yards and four touchdowns and catching 70 passes for 583 yards and another score. He will be accompanied by free agent Jesse Lumsden, who logged 1,797 yards and nine touchdowns in four seasons with Hamilton. Newcomers Ciatrick Fason and Arkee Whitlock add more depth to this suddenly talented backfield.
Opening holes for those explosive backs shouldn't be a problem, as the Eskimos return a wealth of experience up front. Patrick Kabongo, a West Division All- Star, highlights the group and he will be accompanied by Gord Hinse, who was the 11th overall pick in the 2009 Draft.
While the rest of the offense is talented, it is the receiving corps that makes the attack so dangerous. Kamau Peterson has emerged as one of the more explosive wideouts in the league, having racked up two straight 1,000-yard campaigns and a 101-catch season in 2008. He was named the CFL's Most Outstanding Canadian in 2008. Veteran Fred Stamps churned out 751 receiving yards and six touchdowns a year ago and he will help fill the void left by the departure of Kelly Campbell (1,223 yards, seven TDs).
On the defensive side, Dario Romero anchors the line and the 300-pound tackle had 30 stops and six sacks in being named a 2008 West Division All-Star. Newcomers Greg Peach and Shaun Richardson have impressed during camp and are a couple of players that could make an immediate impact.
In the middle, Edmonton will need to find a replacement for Shannon Garrett, who retired after a highly successful 14-year career in the CFL. Former Roughrider Maurice Lloyd will help fill the void left by Garrett and he is coming off a 74-tackle, five-sack campaign. Lloyd, though, will be pushed by rookie Mark Restelli, who has caught the coaching staff's attention with his play. Tim St. Pierre, a 2008 CFL Draft pick, has also shown flashes of a breakout sophomore season.
In just his second season with Edmonton, Jason Gross impressed in the secondary and led the Eskimos in fumble recoveries (three) and interceptions (five). Lenny Williams (36 tackles) and Jont Buhl (50 tackles, four INTs) join Gross in what is a sound and experienced secondary.
All-Star kicker Noel Prefontaine, who made 35-of-46 field goals last season, signed a contract extension in the off-season, giving the Eskimos an edge in the kicking game. Chris Ciezki, an Edmonton native, made 24 special team tackles last season, tying for the second most in team history.
The Eskimos are the most successful CFL franchise in the modern era, winning 13 Grey Cup titles, and they have a legitimate shot of adding to that total this season. Edmonton has a good combination of talent and experience, and if the team can avoid injury and get a few breaks, there is no reason to believe it can't get the job done.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Finish: Second
<< Del Potro rolls in Wimbledon opener
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fifth-seeded Argentine Juan Martin
del Potro was an easy first-round winner Tuesday at Wimbledon.
The 6-foot-6 del Potro blasted speedy Frenchman Arnaud Clement 6-3, 6-1, 6-2
to set-up a second-rounde
<< Rolling Rockies shoot for another win over Angels
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ubaldo Jimenez goes for a fourth straight winning start as
the Colorado Rockies continue a three-game series with the Los Angeles Angels
of Anaheim tonight.
Jimenez is 6-6 with a 3.73 earned run average on the season and h
<< Wang gets another try as Yanks battle Braves
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chien-Ming Wang takes another crack at his first win of the
season this evening, when the New York Yankees open a three-game series with
the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field.
Wang has been absolutely miserable in his six sta
<< It's worst vs. first as Nationals host Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A suddenly-thin rotation might mean Boston Red Sox hurler
Brad Penny isn't going anywhere. It doesn't hurt that he has been pitching
well either.
Penny and his current team kick off a three-game set with Washington tonight
Roddick, del Potro reach second round at Big W >>
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two-time runner-up Andy Roddick and
fifth-seeded Argentine Juan Martin del Potro were a pair of first-round
winners Tuesday at Wimbledon.
The sixth-seeded Roddick hiccupped in the third set in an othe
2009 CFL Western Preview - British Columbia Lions >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record
- 12-8. Playoff Result: Lost, 22-18, to Calgary in divison finals. Stadium -
B.C. Place. Capacity - 29,706. Colors - Orange, black and silver
Last season, had
2009 CFL Eastern Preview - Hamilton Tigercats >>
Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - East. 2008 Record:
3-15. Playoff Result: None. Stadium - Ivor Wynne Stadium. Capacity - 29,600.
Colors: Black and Gold
The 2008 season was one to forget for the Hamilton Tigerca
2009 CFL Eastern Preview - Montreal Alouettes >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - East. 2008 Record:
11-7. Playoff Result: Lost, 22-14, to Calgary in Grey Cup Championship.
Stadium - Percival Molson Stadium. Capacity - 20,202. Colors: Red, blue,
silver, white, a
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting