Sixers hope lightning strikes twice with Thorn, Stefanski

Basketball Betting Lines

08/13/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The expression "lightning never strikes twice" is often used to describe a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Of course, science tells us that lightning strikes occur frequently in specific areas and, although rare, repeat strikes occur.

The Philadelphia 76ers are counting on that.

To be blunt, Ed Stefanski probably should have joined his hand-picked coach Eddie Jordan on the unemployment line after last year's disastrous Sixers season. But, the Comcast-Spectacor braintrust of Ed Snider and Peter Luukko, loathe to admit another in a long line of mistakes, gave the embattled Philadelphia basketball chief one more chance.

This time, with the leash pulled tight in the form of assistant general manager Tony DiLeo and consultant Gene Shue watching over his shoulder, Stefanski made a prudent decision and inked the highly regarded Doug Collins to be the team's mentor in 2010-11.

The hire happened a year after it should have and cost the Sixers dearly in the crowded, very competitive Philadelphia sports market, but Stefanski was finally moving the team in the right direction again. Dealing underachieving center Samuel Dalembert to Sacramento for Spencer Hawes and Andres Nocioni, and landing Evan Turner after lucking out a bit in the NBA Draft Lottery also were regarded as feathers in Stefanski's cap.

That said, you could still sense the Sixers' brass wasn't all that comfortable with Stefanski leading the organization.

That sentiment came into focus on Thursday when Snider and Luukko named Stefanski's old boss in New Jersey. Rod Thorn, as the team's new president.

"We felt with the direction we are now heading that it was important for us to have two very strong basketball minds leading the Philadelphia 76ers," Luukko said. "We are building a strong organization and we're off to a terrific start with the addition of coach Doug Collins, the best available coach, and Evan Turner, who we feel was the best available player in the draft. Now we have added another top-level executive to help lead us into the future."

Thorn, an NBA veteran of more than four decades, spent the past 10 seasons as president of the New Jersey Nets. He was the 2001-02 NBA Executive of the Year and guided the Nets to a pair of Eastern Conference crowns in 2002 and 2003 as well as four Atlantic Division titles before stepping down last month.

"Over my time with the Nets, most of it was great," Thorn said. "The last few years we dismantled the team, on purpose, because of a corporate decision and that wasn't much fun. My feeling is, that time had run its course there."

Stefanski worked under Thorn in New Jersey for nine seasons, moving up from director of scouting to general manager, and was instrumental in the 2004 blockbuster transaction that brought All-Star Vince Carter to the Nets in exchange for a banged-up Alonzo Mourning and assorted flotsam.

Thorn himself engineered two major deals in June of 2001 that set the Nets up for success, trading the team's first pick in the 2001 NBA Draft (Eddie Griffin) to the Houston Rockets for their three first-round picks, one of which turned out to be Richard Jefferson. A day later, he negotiated a major six-player blockbuster trade with the Phoenix Suns that landed New Jersey Jason Kidd in exchange for Stephon Marbury.

"Rod is one of the most respected basketball minds in the game today," Snider said. "When we learned that he would not be re-signing with the Nets, we realized that this would be a terrific opportunity to bring one of the top executives in the NBA to the Sixers to work closely with Ed Stefanski. I'm really pleased to be adding him to our organization. I'm confident that Rod will be a tremendous asset for our team."

It's clear Stefanski excelled under Thorn's auspices before, but the situation is a bit different this time. No matter how you spin it Stefanski, who had served as the Sixers' president and general manager since December of 2007, was demoted on Thursday and called the decision surprising at first.

"My pity party lasted for about a half hour, then I was fine after that," Stefanski said.

Thorn, who made his NBA bones as the general manager in Chicago from 1978-1985 when he selected Michael Jordan third overall in the '84 draft, was quick to temper any possible dissension.

"Some say that when Ed left, the Nets weren't as good after that," Thorn said. "I have a lot of respect for Ed, both on a professional and personal level. And I look forward to working very closely with him as we go forward. He understands me, and I think I understand him. We make a good team, and hopefully that will take effect and be something we can all be proud of here."

Whether a Thorn-Stefanski sequel ends up doing similar business 90 miles down the Jersey Turnpike will likely depend on Stefanski's ability to swallow his pride and handle a rather significant blow to his ego.

"Rod is my mentor in the NBA," Stefanski said. "He taught me a lot of things about the NBA and we are close friends. I know Rod, he knows me. We work extremely well together. I think we were a hell of a team in New Jersey and I think the results showed that. There is no reason to say that we are not going to do the same thing here."

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.